Social Security 2026 COLA Delayed Due to Federal Shutdown

Retirees and Social Security beneficiaries will have to wait longer than usual to learn the 2026 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) after the federal government shutdown delayed key inflation data. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) had planned to release the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Oct. 15, which is the basis for the SSA’s annual benefit increase.

The BLS now plans to publish the September CPI at 8:30 a.m. on Friday, Oct. 24. No additional economic reports will be issued until government services resume fully. The SSA must receive the CPI data to announce the COLA by Nov. 1, following federal law. Notices for next year’s adjustments are typically mailed throughout December.

Based on current projections, the 2026 COLA is expected to be modest compared with recent years. Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst, anticipates a 2.8% increase if September inflation aligns with current trends. The Senior Citizens League, a nonpartisan advocacy group, estimates a 2.7% rise. In 2023, Social Security benefits saw the largest recent increase of 8.7%.

If the 2026 adjustment is 2.7%, the average Social Security payment of $2,008.31 for retired workers would grow by approximately $54 per month, or about $650 annually. The typical monthly benefit across all retirees, which stood at $1,864.64 in August, would increase by roughly $50 per month. In 2025, over 72.5 million Americans saw a 2.5% COLA increase.

The annual adjustment is calculated using CPI data for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers from July, August, and September. The delay has left many seniors uncertain about budgeting for essentials such as rent, groceries, medications, and healthcare. Shannon Benton, executive director of the Senior Citizens League, said the delay is “disrupting financial planning for millions of retirees who depend on timely information about their benefits.”

Medicare Part B premiums are also projected to rise significantly in 2026. Current estimates suggest the monthly premium could increase from $185 in 2025 to $206.50 in 2026, a $21.50 jump. This would be the largest dollar increase in the program’s history if the final figure aligns with the projection. The hold-harmless provision ensures that Social Security checks will not decrease due to higher Medicare costs. However, in some cases, the COLA increase could be entirely offset by the rise in premiums.

With the September CPI now set for release in late October, retirees and Social Security recipients must wait for the official figures to plan their budgets for 2026.

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