Instacart Ends Week 13% Below DoorDash's $65 Offer as Analysts Flag Antitrust Risk in $17 Billion Deal

Shares of Instacart closed the week well below the price DoorDash agreed to pay for the grocery delivery company, a gap that analysts linked to the long regulatory review ahead for the roughly $17 billion deal.

Instacart, formally Maplebear Inc., ended Friday, October 30, 2026, at $56.45, down 1.2% on the day and about 13% below the $65.00-per-share deal value, according to Yahoo Finance data. DoorDash shares closed at $178.99, essentially unchanged on Friday after rising about 5.6% on Thursday, when the agreement and both companies' third-quarter results were announced.

Terms of the agreement

Under the definitive agreement announced on October 29, DoorDash will acquire Instacart for a total value of $65.00 per share, or an equity value of about $17 billion. The price represents a 26% premium to Instacart's closing price on October 22, the last trading day before media reports of a possible transaction.

Instacart stockholders can elect to receive, for each share, $65.00 in cash, 0.3372 DoorDash shares, or $48.75 in cash plus 0.0843 DoorDash shares. Total stock consideration is capped at 25% of the aggregate, with proration if stock is oversubscribed. Instacart's board unanimously approved the agreement, and holders of about 19% of Instacart's shares have agreed to vote in favor.

DoorDash plans to fund the cash portion with cash on hand and debt, and has a commitment from JPMorgan Chase Bank for a 364-day senior unsecured bridge loan. The company said it is targeting a capital structure that maintains investment-grade ratings. The transaction is expected to close at the end of 2027 or in the first half of 2028, subject to Instacart shareholder approval, expiration of the waiting period under the Hart-Scott-Rodino Act, and other regulatory approvals, including in Canada and Israel.

DoorDash said it expects to keep Instacart's brand, enterprise technology products and app after closing. It also said local grocers would not be required to work exclusively with the combined company, and that DashPass and Instacart+ members would pay one membership fee instead of two, which it estimated would save members about $100 million a year.

Analysts focus on regulators

Bernstein downgraded Instacart to Market Perform from Outperform and raised its price target to $65 from $60, Investing.com reported. The firm said market pricing implied about a 60% probability that the deal would not be completed, and identified review by the Federal Trade Commission or the Justice Department, and potentially state authorities, as the main hurdle.

Bernstein estimated that the combined company would account for about 23% of online grocery sales and 3.5% of total grocery sales including in-store purchases. If regulators define the market narrowly as third-party aggregators only, the combined company would hold roughly 88% market share, which the firm said could pose antitrust problems.

Cantor Fitzgerald downgraded Instacart to Neutral from Overweight and Citizens cut it to Market Perform from Outperform, while Cantor Fitzgerald and Morgan Stanley raised their price targets to $65, according to Stocktwits reporting on Yahoo Finance, citing The Fly. On DoorDash, Wedbush upgraded the stock to Outperform with a $230 target, while Needham cut its target to $235 from $265 and Wells Fargo cut its target to $200 from $230, both keeping their ratings.

Third-quarter results

DoorDash reported third-quarter revenue of $4.6 billion, up 34% from a year earlier, with total orders up 28% to 993 million and Marketplace gross order value up 36% to $33.9 billion. Net income attributable to common stockholders rose 91% to $466 million, and adjusted EBITDA increased 41% to $1.06 billion. Excluding the acquired Deliveroo business, orders rose 17% and revenue 23%. For the fourth quarter, DoorDash forecast Marketplace gross order value of $35.4 billion to $36.4 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $900 million to $1.1 billion.

Instacart reported revenue of $1.095 billion, up 17%, with gross transaction value up 15%. Advertising and other revenue rose 23% to $331 million, net income was $147 million, and adjusted EBITDA rose 23% to $342 million. Citing the pending deal, Instacart canceled its November 5 earnings call, suspended its financial guidance and withdrew its long-term targets.