Oil Falls as Vance Outreach and a Qatari Draft Deal Revive Iran Peace Hopes, With WTI Near $100 a Barrel

Oil prices fell on Thursday, October 29, 2026, giving back part of Wednesday's gains, as reports of renewed diplomatic efforts between Washington and Tehran eased concerns about Middle East supply disruptions, even as attacks by Yemen's Houthis and incidents near the Strait of Hormuz kept risks in view.

Prices through the morning

Brent crude futures fell $1.55, or 1.34%, to $113.77 a barrel by 1314 GMT, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were down $2, or 1.95%, at $100.78, Reuters reported in a story carried by Euronext. Brent had risen 1.3% and WTI 3% on Wednesday. Brent settled at $115.32 on Wednesday and WTI at $102.78, NDTV Profit reported, adding that Brent had gained more than 17% this month.

CNBC later reported Brent down 2% at $112.99 and WTI down 2.8% at $99.91. As of about 11:59 a.m. ET, Yahoo Finance quote data showed front-month WTI at $100.85, down about 1.9%, after trading as low as $99.82 during the session. Prices for other energy futures were also lower at that time:

• Natural gas futures were at $2.956 per million British thermal units, down about 2.5%.
• RBOB gasoline futures were at $3.0591 a gallon, down about 1.6%.
• Copper futures, outside the energy complex, were at $6.617 a pound, down about 0.8%.

Diplomatic signals

U.S. Vice President JD Vance sought to revive peace negotiations by sending a letter to Iranian Security Council chief Mohsen Rezaei, the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday, citing U.S. officials and people familiar with the matter, according to Reuters and CNBC.

Qatari mediators presented Iran with a new draft deal to end the war with the U.S. and Israel, an official briefed on the negotiations said, according to Reuters, but a senior Iranian official dismissed it as unacceptable ideas that did not amount to an offer. Iran's foreign minister said on Wednesday that Tehran continued to give diplomacy a chance and flagged the possibility of completing its seven-day plan in less than a week if it were adopted.

"Oil prices are under pressure today amid renewed diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the conflict in the Middle East," UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said, according to Reuters. Yuki Takashima, an economist at Nomura Securities, said earlier in the Asian session: "Selling pressure is prevailing amid expectations that peace talks may resume," according to Moneycontrol, citing Reuters.

Risks that limited the decline

Concerns over intensified attacks by the Iran-aligned Houthis and fears that the U.S. may launch an attack on Iran after its November 3 midterm elections limited the decline, Reuters said. Among the developments cited:

• The Saudi-led coalition fighting the Houthis said it destroyed a ballistic missile fired by the group toward the kingdom's eastern region early on Thursday.
• Yemeni government forces said the Houthis attacked Aden airport on Wednesday.
• The Houthis had said a day earlier that they hit Saudi Arabia's biggest oil refinery with a missile. Moneycontrol described the facility as a 550,000-barrel-per-day refinery and said Saudi authorities had not officially confirmed the strike.
• Iran's Revolutionary Guards said three tankers hit sea mines, exploded and caught fire while attempting to use an unauthorized route south of the Strait of Hormuz over the previous 24 hours.

Russian supply and U.S. inventories

Expectations of rising crude and diesel production from Russia also kept a lid on prices, Reuters reported. "Since the October 15 strike on the Ryazan refinery, there have been no further confirmed attacks on Russian refining infrastructure," JPMorgan analysts said in a note late on Wednesday. "The silence has allowed Russian refinery runs to rebound by 350,000 barrels a day last week, to 4 million barrels a day."

In the United States, crude and distillate inventories fell in the week ended October 23 while gasoline stockpiles rose, according to Energy Information Administration data released Wednesday. The EIA reported a 1.9 million-barrel crude draw, compared with analysts' forecast for a 15,000-barrel build in a Reuters poll, and a 3.9 million-barrel rise in gasoline stocks, Moneycontrol reported. Reuters said analysts at ship-tracking firm Kpler noted that export figures reported by the EIA were higher than their own tracking.

Inflation link

José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, said in a note late Wednesday that "pricey crude remains the predominant driver of above-target inflation," CNBC reported. On Thursday, the Commerce Department said the personal consumption expenditures price index rose 3.6% from a year earlier in September, with gasoline and other energy goods up 9.2% for the month, CNBC reported.

Futures prices are intraday figures and may change before settlement.