Precious Metal

Gold Dips 0.5% and Silver Falls 1.6% Before Fed Decision as Reuters Polls Trim 2026 Forecasts

Gold and silver fell before the Fed's 2 p.m. ET decision as higher oil prices fed rate-hike bets, while Reuters polls cut 2026 forecasts for gold, platinum and palladium.

Oct 28, 2026 - 12:26

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Gold and silver prices declined on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, as a rise in crude oil prices added to inflation concerns ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision, and new Reuters surveys showed analysts lowering their 2026 price forecasts for gold, platinum and palladium.

At 12:13 p.m. ET, Kitco's spot quotes showed gold bid at $4,037.40 an ounce, down $21.90, or 0.54%, after trading between $4,027.30 and $4,071.60 during the session. Silver was bid at $53.42, down 87 cents, or 1.61%. Platinum was little changed at $1,535.00, up 0.07%, and palladium was bid at $998.00, down 1.77%. All of these are intraday prices that will change before the close.

Earlier, at 12:49 GMT (8:49 a.m. ET), spot gold was down 0.2% at $4,050.55 and U.S. gold futures for December delivery were down 0.2% at $4,064.60, Reuters reported. At that time spot silver was down 0.5% at $54.09, platinum was up 0.1% at $1,542.22 and palladium was down 0.4% at $1,022.44. Gold had climbed about 1% in the previous session, according to Reuters.

Oil, inflation and the Fed

Oil prices rose more than 1% after an attack on a refinery in Saudi Arabia renewed concerns about supply risks, Reuters said. "The rise in oil prices and the risk that it results in the Fed taking a more hawkish stance than market participants expect appears to be weighing on gold prices," said Hamad Hussain, climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics.

The Fed is widely expected to leave its benchmark rate unchanged in the 3.75% to 4.00% range when it announces its decision at 2 p.m. ET. Traders were pricing in an 83% probability of a hike in December, according to CME's FedWatch tool, Reuters reported in its 8:49 a.m. ET update; an earlier version of the Reuters report carried by CNBC cited an 84% probability.

"We see a very low likelihood that the US central bank is going to lift rates today, but December is on, March is on as well," said Bart Melek, global head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, according to the report carried by CNBC. Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.

Investors are also awaiting U.S. personal consumption expenditures price data on Thursday. "Should PCE come in soft and the Fed fall short of hawkish expectations, bullion could push higher," said Nikos Tzabouras, an independent financial markets analyst, Reuters reported.

Reuters polls lower 2026 forecasts

Analysts cut their 2026 gold price forecast for a second straight quarter because of high Treasury yields, a strong U.S. dollar and expectations that interest rates will stay higher for longer, but still expect a recovery in 2027, according to a Reuters survey. WorldWideBullionNews, summarizing the October 27 survey of 30 analysts and traders, reported a 2026 median forecast of $4,495 per ounce, down from $4,509 three months earlier, and a 2027 median of $4,650, up from $4,610. The survey said gold reached a record $5,595 in January before falling to around $4,000, according to that summary.

For silver, analysts expect an average of $66.75 an ounce in 2027, below the poll's $70.30 forecast for this year, the same summary said, citing weakening photovoltaic demand, manufacturing substitution and cautious investment sentiment. Silver hit a record $121.60 in January, according to the poll report.

In a separate Reuters survey, analysts and traders cut their 2026 platinum and palladium forecasts for a third straight quarter. A NewsSignals summary of that Reuters report put the 2026 average forecasts at $1,899.50 an ounce for platinum and $1,440 for palladium, from a survey of 22 analysts, with both metals expected to rebound in 2027. Most analysts who provided supply-demand estimates expect a platinum deficit but a palladium surplus this year, according to the summary.

Other demand signals

China's net gold imports via Hong Kong rose more than 28% in September from August to a five-month high, helped by restocking ahead of the Golden Week holiday and by investor demand, according to the report carried by CNBC.

Silver's steeper decline has widened the gap between the two metals. USAGOLD's daily market report put the gold-silver ratio above 75 on Wednesday, up from roughly 60 at the start of the year, and said silver was trading about $1.25 above its 2026 low of $52.66 at the time of its report.