Jobless Claims Rise Modestly as Continuing Claims Hit Two-Year High - Labor Market Analysis

The latest Labor Department report reveals a modest increase of 7,000 in jobless claims, reaching 218,000 for the week ending Nov. 25. Concurrently, continuing claims surge to the highest level in two years, with 1.93 million Americans collecting unemployment benefits as of Nov. 18, marking an 86,000 increase from the previous week.

Analysts attribute the rise in continuing claims to challenges faced by the already unemployed in securing new employment opportunities. Despite the overall strength of the labor market, signs of softness are emerging, with hiring slowing from the robust pace of 2021 and 2022. While monthly hiring in 2023 maintains a solid average of 239,000, it has dipped below 200,000 in three of the last five months.

Employers are posting fewer job openings, contributing to the evolving dynamics of the job market. The Federal Reserve's 11 interest rate hikes since March 2022 aimed at curbing inflation have not hindered the job market's surprising resilience. Contrary to recession predictions, the economy has held steady.

Inflation, a key concern, is showing signs of deceleration. The latest report from the Commerce Department indicates a cooling in the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, reflecting a decrease in price pressures amidst high interest rates and moderating economic growth.

The data also reveals that the four-week moving average of jobless claim applications, a metric smoothing out weekly volatility, has fallen by 500 to 220,000, providing additional insights into the ongoing trends in the labor market.

Also Read: U.S. Business Activity Holds Steady, but Employment Dips in November - S&P Global Report