OPEC+ Set to Approve Modest Oil Output Hike for December

OPEC+ is expected to approve another small increase in oil production targets for December, three sources familiar with the talks said ahead of the group’s ministerial meeting on Sunday. The move reflects a more cautious approach by major producers as forecasts point to a potential supply surplus next year.

Since April, OPEC+ — which includes members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia — has raised output targets by about 2.7 million barrels per day (bpd), equivalent to roughly 2.5% of global supply. However, the group has slowed the pace of increases in recent months, adding only 137,000 bpd in both October and November after larger hikes earlier in the year.

Russia’s Sanctions Complicate Negotiations

The latest round of talks is taking place under the shadow of new Western sanctions on Russia, one of the bloc’s largest producers. Moscow may find it difficult to raise production further as restrictions tighten on its energy exports.

According to three sources, Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Kazakhstan, and Algeria are set to support another 137,000 bpd increase for December. A fourth source, however, noted that some members are considering pausing output hikes entirely if demand signals weaken or logistical constraints worsen.

Officials from OPEC, Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak’s office, and the Saudi government declined to comment ahead of the meeting.

Oil Prices Recover Slightly After Hitting Five-Month Low

Crude prices fell to a five-month low of around $60 a barrel on October 20, driven by fears of oversupply and slowing global demand. Prices have since rebounded to about $65 per barrel, supported by new sanctions on Russia and renewed optimism surrounding global trade negotiations.

Analysts say the modest recovery is unlikely to change OPEC+’s cautious stance. “Saudi Arabia and its OPEC partners will not raise production significantly unless there is clear evidence of a supply disruption,” said RBC Capital Markets’ Helima Croft in a note this week. Croft expects a 137,000 bpd increase, a forecast echoed by Rystad Energy, Commerzbank, and SEB.

The next OPEC+ meeting is scheduled for 1400 GMT on Sunday.

Also Read: OPEC+ Approves 137,000-Barrel Daily Oil Increase for November