OPEC+ Approves 137,000-Barrel Daily Oil Increase for November

VIENNA— The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies agreed to a measured oil production increase of 137,000 barrels per day for November, maintaining the same level of output growth as in October. The decision was announced after an online meeting on Sunday.

The move is part of the cartel’s broader effort to regain market share lost to U.S. shale producers, Brazil, and Guyana, while curbing noncompliance among OPEC members that frequently exceed their quotas. The restrained production increase also responds to market concerns that a larger output hike could trigger a sharp decline in prices.

The November adjustment continues the gradual unwinding of production curbs first introduced in 2023, which initially reduced output by approximately 1.65 million barrels per day. A previous layer of cuts totaling 2.2 million barrels per day was fully rolled back in September, a year ahead of schedule.

Last week, Brent crude futures fell $4.90, reflecting trader expectations of larger-than-anticipated production hikes. Jorge León, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy and a former OPEC official, said the modest increase reflects the cartel’s cautious approach after observing heightened market sensitivity. “The real test will come when fundamentals and politics shift again,” he said.

Global oil prices have declined by over 13% this year, with Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trading within the $65–$70 per barrel range in recent months. Analysts attribute the relative stability to factors including strong summer demand, Chinese stock-building, and ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine.

According to JPMorgan analysts, a surplus of about 2 million barrels per day is expected for the remainder of 2025 and into 2026. The International Energy Agency projects global oil supply growth of 2.7 million barrels per day in 2025 and 2.1 million barrels per day in 2026, revising earlier forecasts upward.

OPEC, responsible for roughly 40% of global oil production, began cutting output in 2023 to stabilize prices amid slowing economic growth. The policy drew criticism from the United States, which accused the cartel of indirectly supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine. In April, the alliance began rolling back voluntary cuts to respond to evolving market conditions.

The eight producers coordinating voluntary reductions—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—are scheduled to meet again on November 2, 2025.

Also Read: Brent Crude Gains Ahead of OPEC+ Weekend Supply Decision