India's October Gold Imports Triple From September to $5.51 Billion but Remain 62.6% Below Last Year

India's gold imports roughly tripled in October from September as lower prices and festival buying ahead of Diwali drew in jewellers and consumers, yet the $5.51 billion total was still 62.57% below the same month a year earlier, according to trade data released by India's Department of Commerce on Friday, Nov. 13.

The provisional quick estimates put October gold imports at $5,511.60 million, compared with $14,724.39 million in October 2025. For the first seven months of India's fiscal year, April through October, gold imports totaled $24.78 billion, down 39.90% from $41.24 billion a year earlier.

A jump from September's low

The monthly increase was steep. Gold imports rose from $1.8 billion in September, Reuters reported via Business Recorder, as purchases picked up ahead of Diwali, when buying gold is considered auspicious. A senior Indian official said the recovery was likely driven by a correction in global prices and pre-festive demand. India is the world's second-largest gold consumer and relies heavily on imports.

Imports had grown in the first four months of the fiscal year, rising to $5.63 billion in April from $3.10 billion a year earlier, before falling sharply in August and September, when they dropped to $2.30 billion and $1.80 billion, respectively, The Hindu BusinessLine reported, citing commerce ministry data.

Silver imports also declined from a year earlier. India brought in $1,951.16 million of silver in October, down 28.26% from $2,719.59 million in October 2025, and $4.36 billion in April-October, down 26.58%, the commerce ministry data showed.

Higher gold and oil purchases pushed India's merchandise trade deficit to a one-year high of $39.88 billion in October, above the $32.25 billion forecast in a Reuters poll. Reuters also noted that India's market regulator had nudged asset managers in mid-October to halt bulk purchases for gold exchange-traded funds.

Central bank and ETF demand

Official-sector buying has continued during the price decline. China's central bank added about 25.8 metric tons of gold in October, extending its buying streak to 24 consecutive months, with additions of about 129 tons in the first 10 months of the year, Bloomberg reported via Moneycontrol on Nov. 7. World Gold Council data showed net central bank purchases of 321 tons in the third quarter, the most since the final quarter of 2024.

In the United States, precious metals exchange-traded funds drew $728 million of net inflows in the week to Nov. 13 even as the category lost 4.71%, ETF Action said. SPDR Gold Shares took in $423 million and SPDR Gold MiniShares $272 million, while the iShares Silver Trust saw $42 million of outflows.

Prices and the week ahead

Comex gold futures for December delivery fell $188.60, or nearly 5%, last week to $3,886.30 an ounce, and silver dropped 5.43% to $49.12, PTI reported via CNBC-TV18 on Sunday. On India's Multi Commodity Exchange, December gold lost 4.10% for the week to about 1.36 lakh rupees per 10 grams. Analysts quoted by PTI said this week's inflation readings from India, the U.S., the U.K., the euro zone and Japan, minutes of the Federal Reserve's October meeting and developments in West Asia would guide bullion.

The World Gold Council said in its October market commentary, published Nov. 5, that two of three conditions it has historically associated with gold recovering during a downtrend were in place: prices well below the 200-day average and a strong dollar. The third, a clear-out of speculative futures positioning, had not yet occurred, the council said. Gold ended October at $3,913 an ounce, about 25% below its January record of $5,405.