Oil Rebounds From Two-Month Lows on Iran Nuclear Stance; U.S. Natural Gas Hits Nine-Month High

Oil prices rose about 1% on Wednesday, Nov. 11, 2026, recovering from two-month lows after Iran's top security official said Tehran would not allow enriched nuclear material to leave the country. U.S. natural gas futures climbed to a nine-month high on forecasts of colder weather. Meanwhile, OPEC left its global demand outlook unchanged in its monthly report.

Crude rebounds from two-month lows

Brent futures were up $1.22, or 1.3%, at $92.71 a barrel by 14:12 GMT (9:12 a.m. ET), and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained $1.09, or 1.3%, to $87.13, Reuters reported. A later CNBC update put Brent at $92.81, up $1.32, and WTI at $87.12, up $1.08.

Washington has said nuclear issues must be part of any initial negotiations with Tehran on ending the war with Iran. On Tuesday, Nov. 10, oil initially fell more than $3 a barrel after U.S. officials played down the need for more military strikes. Prices pared some of that drop after an Iranian security official said no talks were taking place.

The January Brent contract settled Tuesday at $91.49, down $1.08, and December WTI settled at $86.04, down 81 cents, according to Sprague Energy's daily market report. Both benchmarks closed at their lowest levels since Aug. 31 for a second straight day. December WTI had settled at $104.12 on Oct. 30, according to Oil Market Daily. Reuters said Brent and WTI have fallen about 21% and 17%, respectively, since the start of November.

Shipping attacks keep risk in prices

"Oil prices are being supported by fading hopes of an imminent de-escalation," UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo told Reuters. Thirty-seven ships were attacked in October in and around the Strait of Hormuz, the highest monthly total since the war began, according to data from the Washington Institute for Near East Policy cited by Reuters.

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency said a tanker was struck northeast of Lima in Oman on Tuesday. Iran's Revolutionary Guards Navy said two tankers caught fire after hitting naval mines on an "unauthorized route" in the strait. "Even in the event a deal is struck, an increase in flows through the waterway would still depend on mine clearance, insurance costs and whether or not shipowners would even be willing to take the risk," LSEG Oil Research said in a Nov. 10 note.

Elsewhere, Russia's chief negotiator on Ukraine, Vladimir Medinsky, said a peace settlement seemed closer after two days of talks in Abu Dhabi. A regional governor said a drone attack caused a fire in the port area of Ust-Luga on Russia's Baltic coast. Industry sources told Reuters that Russian refining capacity has been reduced by about 30% since late October because of Ukrainian drone attacks.

Inventories and forecasts

U.S. crude stocks rose by 9 million barrels last week, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute data, Reuters reported. Because of the Veterans Day holiday, the Energy Information Administration moved its official Weekly Petroleum Status Report for the week ended Nov. 6 to Thursday, Nov. 12, at 12 p.m. ET, according to the agency's release schedule.

In its monthly report released Wednesday, OPEC kept its forecast for global oil demand growth at 180,000 barrels a day in 2026, to 105.72 million barrels a day, Argus reported. It also held its forecast of 2.55 million barrels a day of growth in 2027, to 108.28 million. The 2026 figure compares with the 1.4 million barrels a day of growth OPEC forecast before the war began. OPEC trimmed its outlook for Chinese demand to a 70,000-barrel-a-day decline this year.

Secondary-source estimates in the OPEC report showed OPEC+ crude output, including Mexico and the UAE, rose by 2.04 million barrels a day in October to 41.23 million, led by Saudi Arabia and Iraq. OPEC estimated global oil inventories fell by 537 million barrels from a February peak to 8.043 billion barrels at the end of September.

In its November Short-Term Energy Outlook, released Tuesday, the EIA said it expects the Brent spot price to stay near $100 a barrel for the rest of this year. It then sees Brent falling gradually to an average of $77 in the fourth quarter of 2027. The agency finalized its model inputs on Nov. 5.

Natural gas hits nine-month high

December natural gas futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 5.6 cents, or 2%, to $3.352 per million British thermal units, on track for their highest close since Feb. 6, according to a Reuters report carried by the Economic Times. Reuters cited forecasts for colder weather and more demand over the next two weeks, near-record flows to LNG export plants and a recent decline in output.

Prices had already reached a four-week high on Tuesday. That day, U.S. dry gas production fell to 110.9 billion cubic feet a day, a nine-month low, and LNG feedgas flows were estimated at 20.4 bcf a day, Barchart reported, citing BNEF. Funds held a record net-short position of 636,576 contracts in the week ended Nov. 3, according to government data cited by Barchart. The EIA forecast the Henry Hub spot price will average $2.87 from November through March, 16% lower than it expected last month.