IEA Says Oil Market Has Returned to Surplus for First Time Since Iran War; Brent Holds Near $96

The global oil market moved into surplus in October for the first time since the war in Iran began, the International Energy Agency said on Friday, Nov. 13, 2026, as Gulf exports recovered faster than demand. Crude prices held near the week's highs as attacks on shipping and energy infrastructure in the Middle East continued.

IEA: supply overtakes demand

Global oil supply rose by 2.3 million barrels per day in October to 105.4 million bpd, following a 3 million bpd increase in September, the IEA said in its monthly Oil Market Report. Output has risen by 5.3 million bpd since August.

"The oil market is showing tentative signs of rebalancing, with global oil supplies surpassing demand for the first time since the outbreak of the war in Iran," the agency wrote.

Observed global oil inventories rose by 52 million barrels, or 1.7 million bpd, in October, the first increase since June. Oil on water surged by 86 million barrels to its highest since January. On-land stocks continued to fall and remain at their lowest level since at least 2016. Observed global stocks have fallen by a cumulative 462 million barrels since the start of the war, the IEA said.

Gulf oil exports excluding Oman reached 18.4 million bpd in October, 26% below pre-war levels. Crude flows rose to 15 million bpd, equal to 82% of pre-war levels. The agency raised its fourth-quarter 2026 supply estimate by 3.3 million bpd.

Oil supply will average 105 million bpd in the fourth quarter, 1.7 million bpd above forecast demand, Reuters reported. The IEA had previously forecast a fourth-quarter deficit. For 2027, it sees a surplus of about 3.8 million bpd, slightly below last month's 3.94 million bpd estimate.

Demand still shrinking this year

The IEA forecast that world oil demand will fall by 2.7 million bpd in 2026 to 102.3 million bpd, before rebounding by 2 million bpd in 2027. The annual decline is set to ease to 2.7 million bpd in the fourth quarter, from an average of 4.4 million bpd over the second and third quarters.

Global supply is projected to rise by 6.6 million bpd to 108.1 million bpd in 2027, a forecast 1.1 million bpd lower than last month's, partly reflecting a downward revision for Iran, which faces a U.S. blockade. The United States, Canada, Brazil, Argentina and Guyana are on track to raise output by 1.6 million bpd this year.

The agency said 71 million barrels from a record emergency stock release pledged in March would be made available by the end of February, including 15 million barrels of diesel, Reuters reported. Russia's crude production rose by 210,000 bpd to 8.73 million bpd in October, CNBC reported, citing the IEA, while attacks on Russian energy infrastructure continued to limit its diesel exports.

Diesel remains tight

North Sea Dated crude fell 32% from a high of $136 a barrel on Oct. 8 to about $93 at the time of writing, the IEA said, but remained $22 above pre-war levels. European diesel prices fell 11% over the same period, but at close to $180 a barrel were still 77% above pre-war levels.

Prices on Friday

Brent crude for January delivery traded at $95.85 a barrel at 1341 GMT, down 2.5% from the previous Friday's close of $98.32, while West Texas Intermediate for December delivery traded at $88.28, down about 2.8% on the week, Anadolu Agency reported. Earlier, at 9:15 a.m. EST, Brent was up $0.82 near $96.64 and WTI up $0.34 at $89.08, DTN reported.

Prices initially fell after the IEA report, then recovered on concerns about escalation after U.S. Central Command said it shot down two attack drones launched by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps toward a U.S. base in Bahrain, Barchart reported. Consultant Verisk Maplecroft counted 36 confirmed attacks on commercial ships in the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman in October, the most since the war began.

Yemen's Houthis claimed strikes on a pumping station on Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline, an oil facility in Yanbu and an Aramco building in Riyadh, Moneycontrol reported. On Thursday, President Donald Trump said the U.S. does not need a deal with Iran.

In fuels, December ULSD rose $0.0366 to $4.3231 a gallon and RBOB gasoline slipped $0.0025 to $2.6683, DTN said. U.S. distillate inventories rose 4.1 million barrels last week, according to Energy Information Administration data cited by DTN.