Fed Decision, Third-Quarter GDP and September PCE Inflation Data Set Up a Pivotal Week for the U.S. Economy

The Federal Reserve's policy decision on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, and a dense run of economic data in the days that follow make the final week of October one of the busiest of the year for the U.S. economy. The central bank's rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee meets October 27-28, and the Bureau of Economic Analysis is scheduled to publish both the first estimate of third-quarter gross domestic product and the September personal income and spending report at 8:30 a.m. ET on Thursday, October 29, according to the BEA release schedule.

Where the Fed stands

At its previous meeting, on September 16, the FOMC voted 12-0 to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by a quarter percentage point to 3.75% to 4.00%. In that statement, the committee said economic activity was expanding at a solid pace, that inflation "remains elevated," and that the increase would "support a timelier return" to its 2% goal. "The Committee will deliver price stability," the statement concluded.

For the October meeting, a hold at the current 3.75% to 4.00% range is widely expected, CNBC reported on Friday. The network said a weak September jobs report and remarks from Fed officials signaling a patient approach, including Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and New York Fed President John Williams, had reduced expectations of another increase at this meeting, even as recent data showed inflation moving further from the 2% target amid higher gasoline and diesel prices.

The rate decision is due at 2:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday, followed by a press conference with Chair Kevin Warsh. The October gathering is not one of the meetings at which officials publish a new Summary of Economic Projections; the Fed's calendar marks the December 8-9 meeting as the next one with projections. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon, told CNBC that Warsh would have to explain any pause to reporters, and that markets could question the Fed's credibility if it does not act on its stated commitment to price stability.

Thursday: GDP and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge

The day after the decision, the BEA releases its advance estimate of third-quarter GDP alongside personal income and outlays for September, which includes the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index that the Fed uses for its inflation target.

The weekly economic calendar compiled by Morningstar lists the following readings for the Thursday releases, compared with the prior period:

• Third-quarter GDP, seasonally adjusted annual rate: 3.0%, versus 2.2% in the second quarter.
• Core PCE price index, year over year: 3.1%, versus 3.0% in August.
• Headline PCE price index, year over year: 3.6%, versus 3.4% in August.
• Personal income, month over month: 0.3%, versus 0.2% in August.
• Initial jobless claims for the week ended October 24: 195,000, versus 194,000 a week earlier.

CNBC's preview likewise put expectations for core PCE inflation at 3.1% over the past year, up from 3.0% previously.

Other data on the calendar

Tuesday, October 27, brings September durable goods orders at 8:30 a.m. ET, the FHFA house price index for August at 9:00 a.m., and both the Conference Board's October consumer confidence index and September new home sales at 10:00 a.m., according to CNBC's calendar. Morningstar's calendar lists durable goods orders at 1.4% for September after a 0.07% decline in August, consumer confidence at 80.7 after 81.9 in September, and new home sales at an annual rate of 645,000 after 684,000 in August.

Wednesday's schedule also includes preliminary September wholesale inventories at 8:30 a.m. On Friday, October 30, the Labor Department's employment cost index for the third quarter is due at 8:30 a.m., and the Chicago purchasing managers' index for October follows at 9:45 a.m.; Morningstar's calendar lists the Chicago PMI at 53.0, down from 58.8 in September.

Earnings in the same week

The data arrive in the middle of the heaviest stretch of third-quarter earnings season. CNBC said 163 companies in the S&P 500 are scheduled to report during the week, including Alphabet and Microsoft on Wednesday, the same afternoon as the Fed decision, and Amazon on Thursday. Of the S&P 500 companies that had reported so far, 82% had beaten expectations, according to the network.

Key dates at a glance

• Tuesday, Oct. 27: durable goods orders, FHFA home prices, consumer confidence, new home sales; first day of the FOMC meeting.
• Wednesday, Oct. 28: FOMC rate decision at 2:00 p.m. ET and Chair Warsh's press conference.
• Thursday, Oct. 29: third-quarter GDP (advance), September personal income and outlays including PCE prices, weekly jobless claims.
• Friday, Oct. 30: third-quarter employment cost index, October Chicago PMI.

Sources

• Federal Reserve: FOMC statement (Sept. 16, 2026)
• Federal Reserve: FOMC meeting calendar
• U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis: Release schedule
• CNBC: Next week brings major risks for the stock market (Oct. 23, 2026)
• Morningstar: What's Happening in the Markets This Week (Oct. 23, 2026)