Precious Metal

Wall Street Analysts Turn Bearish on Gold Below $4,000 Ahead of Fed, ECB and BOJ Week, Kitco Survey Shows

Seven of 17 Wall Street analysts in Kitco's weekly survey expect gold to fall further after a 4.12% weekly drop to $3,995.81, while 42% of retail voters expect a rebound.

Oct 25, 2026 - 12:20

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Professional gold market participants have turned more pessimistic after the metal's slide below $4,000 an ounce, while retail investors remain more inclined to expect a rebound, according to the latest weekly gold survey by Kitco News. The survey was published on Friday evening, October 23, 2026, ahead of a week of policy decisions from the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Canada and the Bank of Japan.

How gold traded last week

Spot gold opened the week at $4,164.69 an ounce on Sunday evening and set its weekly high of $4,190.17 early Monday before selling took hold, Kitco reported. Prices fell through Monday and Tuesday, stabilized briefly on Wednesday and then dropped sharply on Thursday as a technology-led equity selloff triggered broader liquidations. Gold set its weekly low of $3,975.10 on Friday, its lowest level since early June, about an hour after the North American open. At the time of Kitco's report, spot gold last traded at $3,995.81, down 4.12% on the week and 0.71% on the day.

Kitco attributed the decline to rising oil prices, persistent inflation concerns and expectations of further Fed tightening, which it said outweighed safe-haven demand.

Survey results

Seventeen analysts took part in the Wall Street portion of the survey. Four, or 24%, expect gold prices to rise in the week ahead, seven, or 41%, expect further declines, and the remaining six, or 35%, either could not predict the direction or expected sideways trading, Kitco said.

In Kitco's online poll, 161 votes were cast. Sixty-seven retail traders, or 42%, expect gold to rise next week, 41, or 26%, expect it to fall, and 53, or 33%, expect consolidation.

What analysts said

Marc Chandler, managing director at Bannockburn Global Forex, said the technical tone "still looks weak," with momentum indicators not rising and the five- and 20-day moving averages falling, and put initial resistance in the $4,065-$4,075 area. Rich Checkan, president and COO of Asset Strategies International, said the stock market selloff had triggered margin calls and that investors seeking liquidity turned to gold, adding that he did not expect the metal "to remain below $4,000 very long."

Kevin Grady, president of Phoenix Futures and Options, pointed to thin trading conditions, saying daily volumes of about 129,000 contracts compared with more than 400,000 after markets moved to electronic trading. Sean Lusk, co-director of commercial hedging at Walsh Trading, said the Iran conflict continues to cap gold through its effect on oil prices, inflation expectations and Fed rate projections. "It's just an impediment to any rally in gold," he said. Alex Kuptsikevich, senior market analyst at FxPro, said the downward move "appears excessive" in the short term, suggesting at least a corrective rebound.

The week's central bank calendar

The U.S. calendar begins Tuesday with durable goods orders, consumer confidence and new home sales, according to Kitco. On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada announces its decision in the morning and the Fed in the afternoon. Thursday brings the ECB decision, the advance estimate of U.S. third-quarter GDP, September PCE inflation data and weekly jobless claims, with the Bank of Japan's decision following overnight. Chandler said only the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is likely to raise rates among the G10 central banks meeting next week, though he expected the others, including the Fed, to keep the door open to hikes before year-end.

Official sector: Russia's continued sales

On the official-sector side, the Bank of Russia reduced its gold holdings by the equivalent of 6.2 tonnes in September, lowering sovereign reserves to 72.8 million troy ounces, or 2,264 tonnes, the lowest level since the end of 2019, Kitco reported on October 21, citing central bank figures. Kitco said Russia has now cut its gold holdings for 10 consecutive months, liquidating around 62 tonnes since December 2025, and valued the remaining reserves at about $301.6 billion at the end of September, compared with $333.5 billion a month earlier.