Brent Crude Gains Ahead of OPEC+ Weekend Supply Decision
Brent crude recovers after four-day slide as traders track OPEC+ output, Iraq oil exports, China purchases, and 2025 global surplus.
Oil prices pared losses Friday after a steep drop earlier in the week as traders positioned for a critical OPEC+ meeting on supply this weekend. Brent crude futures rose modestly, trading around $X per barrel, but remain down about 8% for the week, the largest weekly loss since late June.
Prices have fallen over the past four days on speculation that OPEC+ may accelerate production increases to meet projected global demand. At the same time, efforts by the U.S. government to maintain oil exports from northern Iraqand the ongoing U.S. government shutdown have added downward pressure on oil.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that global oil supply will exceed demand next year, raising concerns about a potential surplus. Traders are watching China closely, as Chinese purchases have so far prevented excess supply from building in major storage hubs in Midwestern U.S. and Northwest Europe. Analysts warn that any slowdown in Chinese buying could worsen the supply glut.
In September, OPEC+ increased output by 400,000 barrels per day, completing the restart of 2.2 million barrels per day previously cut in 2023. This restart has brought total production back to pre-cut levels, putting additional pressure on prices if demand does not rise accordingly.
Tamas Varga, analyst at brokerage PVM, said, “The long-expected supply glut for the second half of the year is now starting to influence prices. The recent decline reflects growing oil inventories and expectations of higher output from OPEC+.”
Traders are also preparing for potential changes in U.S. shale production and seasonal demand shifts in Europe and Asia. The combination of rising output and moderate demand growth could keep Brent and WTI futures under pressure through the next few months unless consumption picks up.
Investors should note that geopolitical factors remain important. Disruptions in the Middle East, changes in Iraqi exports, or policy decisions from major producers could quickly affect oil prices. For now, the market is balancing the immediate recovery from Friday’s modest gains against ongoing concerns about an oversupplied market in 2025.
Also Read: U.S. Oil Production Reaches Record 13.58 Million Bpd in June, EIA Reports
