Markets

Midterm Elections, Apple Earnings and the October Jobs Report Headline a Packed Week for Wall Street

U.S. stocks enter a week with Tuesday's midterm elections, 138 S&P 500 earnings reports including Apple and AMD, two ISM surveys and Friday's October payrolls report.

Nov 01, 2026 - 12:15

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U.S. stock investors head into a week that combines the midterm elections on Tuesday, November 3, earnings from 138 S&P 500 companies and the October employment report on Friday, November 6, according to a CNBC week-ahead outlook. Markets reopen Monday, November 2, after the S&P 500 fell 0.6% and the Nasdaq Composite 2.0% last week, their third straight weekly losses, according to Yardeni Research.

Not every part of the market declined. Most of the 11 S&P 500 sectors posted weekly gains as traders moved into areas such as health care and consumer staples, CNBC reported. Based on Yahoo Finance closing data, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost about 0.9% for the week, while the small-cap Russell 2000 gained about 1.3%. The Cboe Volatility Index ended Friday at 19.42.

Earnings: Apple leads a heavy calendar

About 31% of S&P 500 companies are scheduled to report this week, Yardeni Research said. CNBC's calendar lists Apple, Palantir Technologies, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, ON Semiconductor and Marriott International on Monday; Advanced Micro Devices, Pfizer, Amgen, Booking Holdings, Super Micro Computer and Arista Networks on Tuesday; Qualcomm, Uber Technologies, McDonald's, DoorDash, AppLovin and CVS Health on Wednesday; Airbnb, ConocoPhillips, Simon Property Group and Wynn Resorts on Thursday; and Charter Communications, Humana and Moderna on Friday.

Apple has been the best performer among the "Magnificent Seven" megacap stocks this year, with shares up 28% year to date, CNBC reported. On Friday, Bank of America analyst Wamsi Mohan removed Apple from the bank's US1 list of top investment ideas, writing that he has a "more conservative outlook" than the Street because of the possible effect of a staggered iPhone launch on gross margins.

The S&P 500 is still projected to post third-quarter earnings growth of about 30%, according to FactSet data cited by CNBC. However, companies have beaten estimates by an average of only 1.4%, compared with five- and 10-year averages of 7.5% and 8%, a gap FactSet senior earnings analyst John Butters attributed almost entirely to the reports from Meta Platforms and Alphabet.

Economic data and the Fed

The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28 in a 10-2 vote, with the two dissenters favoring a quarter-point increase, Yardeni Research noted. This week's data will feed into expectations for the Fed's next decision, and six Fed officials are scheduled to speak.

Monday: ISM manufacturing index for October at 10:00 a.m. ET, plus construction spending. The September ISM reading was 54.5, with its prices-paid index at 77.9.
Tuesday: Election Day, plus JOLTS job openings for September and factory orders. August openings were 7.1 million.
Wednesday: ADP private payrolls at 8:15 a.m., the September trade balance and the ISM services index. ADP reported a 90,000 gain in September.
Thursday: Weekly jobless claims, Challenger layoff announcements and preliminary third-quarter productivity.
Friday: October nonfarm payrolls at 8:30 a.m. and the University of Michigan's preliminary November consumer sentiment survey.

Economists expect the economy added 55,000 jobs in October, with the unemployment rate steady at 4.2%, according to FactSet figures cited by CNBC. Payrolls rose 29,000 in September, bringing the three-month average to 50,700, while average hourly earnings rose 0.1% from August, Yardeni Research said.

Midterms and seasonal patterns

Early polling and prediction-market data suggest Democrats could win majorities in both the House and the Senate, CNBC reported, though investors it interviewed said the vote is likely to matter less to stocks than the artificial intelligence trade and earnings. "There's going to be volatility," said Mark Malek, investment chief at Siebert Financial. "But I think at the end of the day, there's just so many other macro themes that are so much more important right now."

Historical data from the Stock Trader's Almanac show the Dow has gained 2.8% on average in the eight trading days around midterm election days, in records going back to 1934, CNBC reported. November has been the best month for the Nasdaq in midterm election years, with an average gain of 3.5%, and the second-best month for the Dow and the S&P 500, at 2.6% and 2.7%, respectively. Past seasonal patterns do not determine future results.

BTIG chief market technician Jonathan Krinsky has said the S&P 500 could soon test its 200-day moving average, at 7,306, more than 5% below Thursday's close, according to CNBC. The index closed Friday at 7,580.07. The 10-year Treasury yield ended the week at about 4.93%, Yahoo Finance data show. The Schwab Network also flagged Friday's jobs report as the week's marquee event.