Gold Rises Above $4,120 and Silver Tops $52.70 as Weaker Dollar and Oil Drop Offset December Fed Hike Bets

Gold and silver prices rose on Monday, Nov. 9, 2026, extending last week's rebound as a softer U.S. dollar and a sharp drop in crude oil prices offset rising expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again in December.

Prices on Monday

Spot gold was trading near $4,124.74 an ounce in early U.S. trading, up $54.15, or 1.33%, while spot silver was near $52.759, up $0.815, or 1.57%, according to the Kitco AM Report. Investing.com reported spot gold up 1.44% at $4,128.33 an ounce, spot silver up 1.4% at $52.60 and palladium up 0.7% at $1,024.25, with the U.S. dollar index down 0.5%.

The gains followed a 0.4% decline on Friday, when gold traded around $4,070 an ounce after the October U.S. jobs report showed employers added 165,000 jobs, Investing.com said. Kitco noted that gold had gained roughly 5% last week, helped initially by lower Treasury yields and a weaker dollar after the Democratic sweep of the midterm elections.

Oil, the dollar and the Fed

Kitco attributed Monday's move to the softer dollar, lower crude prices and renewed hopes for a diplomatic end to the U.S.-Iran conflict after President Donald Trump said further U.S. strikes on Iran were highly unlikely while negotiations continued. Lower energy prices eased some concerns about energy-driven inflation ahead of Tuesday's U.S. consumer price index report.

Interest rate expectations remain a headwind for metals that pay no yield. Kitco reported that rate futures implied roughly a 79% to 81% probability of a quarter-point Fed rate increase at the Dec. 8-9 meeting, compared with about 71% before Friday's payrolls report. The 10-year Treasury yield was near 4.87% and the two-year yield near 4.54% in early Monday trading. The October jobs report showed unemployment falling to 4.1% from 4.2% and average hourly earnings rising 0.4% on the month, with August and September payrolls revised up by a combined 84,000 jobs, Kitco said.

Investing.com noted that gold is still about 20% below its level before the U.S.-Iran conflict began in late February. Analysts at Heraeus, quoted by Kitco News, said gold had fallen more than 15% from its late-August high and briefly dropped below $3,900 an ounce, breaking its June low near $3,950, before the midterm results triggered its largest daily gain since August and a recovery above $4,000.

Technical levels cited by Kitco

Kitco's technical analysis identified first resistance for spot gold at $4,147.62, then $4,200.09, with support at $4,088.51 and then $4,051.45. For silver, Kitco cited a resistance zone of $53.107 to $54.617 and support at $51.153 and then $49.989.

Central bank buying and silver supply

Heraeus also pointed to official-sector demand. Citing World Gold Council estimates, the analysts said central banks and other official institutions added 321 tonnes of gold in the third quarter, 42% more than a year earlier and well above the five-year quarterly average of 227 tonnes. That brought purchases in the first nine months of 2026 to 675 tonnes, 6% ahead of the same period last year. Only 120 tonnes of third-quarter buying was identified in country-level reported data, with China adding 63 tonnes and Poland 40 tonnes among disclosed buyers, Heraeus said.

On silver, Heraeus said the metal fell below $50 an ounce last week to a new year-to-date low just under $49 before rebounding above $52, but remains well below the June-July trading range. The analysts also reviewed third-quarter output at Hecla Mining, the largest primary silver producer in the United States and Canada. Hecla produced 4.17 million ounces of silver in the quarter, little changed from 4.21 million ounces in the second quarter but 9% below the 4.58 million ounces produced a year earlier. Record output of 963,000 ounces at the Keno Hill operation, up 54% from the prior quarter, largely offset lower yields at Greens Creek and Lucky Friday, according to Heraeus.

What to watch this week

The October consumer price index is scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET on Tuesday, followed by the October producer price index at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday, Nov. 13, Kitco said. Weekly jobless claims and October existing home sales are due Thursday. U.S. bond markets will be closed Wednesday for Veterans Day, while equity markets remain open. Kitco noted that a softer inflation reading could lower expectations for December tightening and weigh on yields and the dollar, while a stronger reading would reinforce the case for a hike.