Oil Plunges About 9% as Brent Falls Below $95 After Vance Ties Midterm Loss to Iran War; EIA Shows Crude Draw

Oil prices plunged on Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2026, with Brent crude falling below $95 a barrel and U.S. crude dropping under $90, as traders bet that Democrats' capture of Congress in the midterm elections will add pressure on Washington to end the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. The selloff deepened late in the morning after Vice President JD Vance said the war was the reason Republicans lost, and it overshadowed government data showing a surprise decline in U.S. crude inventories.

Prices at midday

As of about 11:59 a.m. ET, Brent futures were down $9.26, or 8.9%, at $94.34 a barrel, after touching a low of $94.00, according to Yahoo Finance data. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down $7.71, or 8.0%, at $88.38, near its session low of $88.26. On Tuesday, WTI for December delivery settled at $96.09 and January Brent at $103.60, Xinhua reported, citing exchange settlements.

Yahoo Finance data show Brent's intraday low was its weakest level since early September, and WTI's was the lowest since early October. The losses accelerated after 10:40 a.m. ET, when Reuters had Brent trading at $101.30 and WTI at $93.90.

Politics and the Iran war

"The reason we lost is the war," Vance said in a social media post on Wednesday, adding, "The president himself said so last night," according to CNBC. CNBC said traders appeared to be betting the election defeat will push President Donald Trump to negotiate with Iran, and noted that Trump told the Financial Times on Tuesday that he has no immediate plans to strike Iran. Oil had gained more than 10% in October as markets priced in the risk of a major escalation after the elections, and prices are down more than 14% this week, CNBC said.

"Larger crude oil exports out of the Middle East along with President Trump stating he has no immediate plans to strike Iran is keeping the pressure on crude oil prices for now," Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial, told Reuters in a report published by RTE. "The Democratic control of Congress could also tighten US military spending in the Middle East and further heighten the possibility of a peace deal sooner than later."

Others pointed to risks on the other side. "I'm more concerned that we can see an escalation in Iran sooner than a resolution," said Carl Larry of Enverus, according to the same Reuters report. A senior Iranian official told Reuters on Tuesday that Iran and the United States remain far from a deal, while Qatar has stepped up mediation. Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said in a written statement that U.S. hostility would persist regardless of which party is in power, and Yemen's Houthis said they had targeted King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, a claim Saudi authorities had not confirmed.

EIA reports a crude draw

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said commercial crude inventories fell by 865,000 barrels to 409.8 million barrels in the week ended Oct. 30, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a rise of 877,000 barrels. Stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub rose by 280,000 barrels. Gasoline inventories fell by 222,000 barrels to 209 million barrels, against expectations for a build, and distillate stocks, which include diesel and heating oil, dropped by 3.6 million barrels to 99.3 million barrels.

Refinery crude runs rose by 199,000 barrels per day and utilization increased 1.7 percentage points to 94.5%, the EIA said, while net crude imports rose by 1.18 million barrels per day. Earlier, American Petroleum Institute data cited by market sources on Wednesday had pointed to a larger crude draw of 5.27 million barrels.

Supply returning to the market

Gulf exports of crude, condensate and refined products, excluding liquefied petroleum gas, averaged 17.1 million barrels per day in October, down from 18.9 million in September but still roughly three-quarters of pre-war levels, according to Vortexa ship-tracking data cited by Reuters. Reuters also cited a Bloomberg report that the United Arab Emirates is considering a third export pipeline that would bypass the Strait of Hormuz.

In a note on Wednesday, JPMorgan said the global oil market has moved back into surplus. The bank estimated a surplus of 1.1 million barrels per day in September, widening to 1.4 million in October, as Middle Eastern exports recovered to about 20.7 million barrels per day from a low of 9.8 million in March. JPMorgan estimated that global demand has fallen by about 3.3 million barrels per day since the conflict began, and that Latin America is supplying about 1.5 million barrels per day more crude than a year ago.

Gas and energy shares

European natural gas also fell. Dutch TTF futures, the regional benchmark, were down 4.59% at 87.40 euros per megawatt-hour after trading above 93 euros earlier in the day, Anadolu Agency reported. In New York, the Energy Select Sector SPDR fund was down 5.5% at midday, and U.S. natural gas futures were near $2.95 per million British thermal units, according to Yahoo Finance data.

Sources: CNBC, Reuters (via BOE Report and RTE), Xinhua, Anadolu Agency and JPMorgan (via Reuters), all Nov. 3-4, 2026; U.S. Energy Information Administration weekly data; Yahoo Finance market data as of about 11:59 a.m. to 12:09 p.m. ET.