Brent Falls to Lowest Since Early September as Trump Plays Down Iran Strikes; US Natural Gas Jumps 5%

Crude oil prices extended last week's steep decline on Monday, Nov. 9, 2026, with Brent sliding to its lowest level since early September after President Donald Trump played down the chance of renewed U.S. strikes on Iran. U.S. natural gas futures moved the other way, rallying about 5% to a three-week high on colder weather forecasts.

Brent and WTI extend last week's rout

Brent crude futures were down $5.05, or 5.2%, at $93.27 a barrel by 14:27 GMT, having touched a low of $93.21, Reuters reported. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down $4.12, or 4.5%, at $86.71. Brent fell 16% last week, Reuters said, its steepest weekly decline since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The move built through the session. Early in Asian trade, prices were close to flat: The Economic Times reported Brent at $97.30 and WTI at $90.29 in early trade. By 12:50 GMT, Brent was down 3.26% at $95.11 and WTI down 2.64% at $88.44, according to Anadolu Agency, which put Brent's seven-day decline at 9.25%.

Why prices are falling

Trump said on Sunday that he was highly unlikely to order fresh attacks on Iran as long as talks to end the conflict progressed, even as both Washington and Tehran reported that ships had been hit in or near the Strait of Hormuz, according to Reuters. Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen told Reuters that oil was trading lower on hopes of a peace deal rather than concrete evidence of progress.

Other officials struck a more cautious note. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said he could not point to progress in the talks and did not see the two sides as close to a breakthrough, EconoTimes reported, ahead of a Group of Seven foreign ministers' meeting in Paris on Nov. 9-10. Barchart reported that the U.S. carried out overnight strikes on targets on the Iranian island of Qeshm in the Strait of Hormuz, and that losses in crude deepened after Israel Hayom reported Iran had dropped its demand to control the strait and collect transit fees. The Economic Times, citing the Saudi Press Agency, reported that Yemen's Houthis struck Riyadh on Sunday, causing minor damage to offices of Saudi Aramco with no casualties reported.

Signs of a looser physical market

Analysts also pointed to supply. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo told Reuters that weakness in the physical market, helped by still-elevated flows out of the Middle East, was weighing on prices. Morgan Stanley said in a Monday report that Dated Brent, the benchmark used to price physical cargoes, had slipped to a discount to the nearby Brent futures contract. JPMorgan estimated a global oil surplus of 1.1 million barrels per day in September, widening to 1.4 million barrels per day in October, as Middle East supply returned, output elsewhere rose and demand weakened, according to Reuters.

Refined products were also lower. Anadolu reported gasoline futures down 1.92% at $2.72 a gallon and heating oil down 0.75% at $4.30 a gallon. European natural gas prices fell 2.37% to €83.56 per megawatt-hour, an 11.96% drop over seven days.

U.S. natural gas rallies on cold forecasts

U.S. natural gas futures rose about 5% to around $3.15 per million British thermal units, a three-week high, according to a Reuters report carried by MarketScreener and a price update from FXBus. The gains came on a colder weather outlook. FXEmpire reported that the Commodity Weather Group expects cooler temperatures across the central and eastern United States through Nov. 20, which would lift heating demand.

Export demand is also strong. Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. LNG feedgas demand hit a record 20.4 billion cubic feet per day as export plants ran near full capacity, according to a headline carried by MarketScreener.

On storage, the U.S. Energy Information Administration's latest weekly report showed a 77 billion cubic feet injection for the week ended Oct. 30, above the five-year average of 61 bcf, FXEmpire noted. Inventories were 2.8% below a year earlier but 1.4% above the five-year seasonal average. Because of the Veterans Day holiday on Nov. 11, the next storage report has been moved to Friday, Nov. 13.

What comes next

Traders are watching for any concrete sign of a U.S.-Iran agreement and for further attacks on shipping near the Strait of Hormuz. Oil and gas markets will also take cues from Tuesday's U.S. consumer price index report and the delayed weekly natural gas storage data on Friday.