U.S. October Jobs Report Expected to Show Modest Payroll Growth

The U.S. government’s October employment report is due Friday morning, with economists looking for another month of limited hiring rather than a sharp break in the labor market. As of publication, the Bureau of Labor Statistics had not released the figures. Its scheduled release time is 8:30 a.m. Eastern, so the numbers below are forecasts and historical comparisons, not October results.

A Dow Jones survey cited by CNBC put the expected increase in nonfarm payrolls at 59,000, slightly above the 29,000 jobs reported for September. The same survey projected an unemployment rate of 4.2%, unchanged from September. Payroll estimates measure the change in employer-reported jobs; the unemployment rate comes from a separate household survey, so the two measures can move differently in a given month. CNBC’s Nov. 5 preview described a labor market with restrained hiring and few layoffs. The BLS release calendar lists the October Employment Situation for Friday, Nov. 6.

A slow hiring pace, with a stable jobless rate

The recent pattern has been weak payroll growth without a large jump in the headline unemployment rate. CNBC’s review of the BLS series said payroll gains from January 2025 through September 2026 averaged about 35,000 per month. Over that period, only one monthly gain exceeded 200,000, while seven months recorded declines. The unemployment rate rose only 0.2 percentage point across the period, to 4.2% in September.

Changes in the size of the available workforce help explain why modest hiring can coexist with a relatively steady jobless rate. The labor force contracted by 434,000 from January 2025 through September 2026 and was nearly one million smaller than in September 2025, CNBC reported, citing BLS figures. The labor-force participation rate—the share of people working or looking for work—stood at 61.8% in September, down 0.8 percentage point over the period described in the report. A smaller pool of people seeking work can reduce the number of new jobs needed to keep the unemployment rate from rising, although it does not by itself show how many people would take a job if one were available.

ZipRecruiter labor economist Nicole Bachaud told CNBC that retirement among an aging workforce, low birth rates and reduced immigration were contributing to slower labor-force growth. Those factors are longer-term explanations, not a measurement of October hiring, and the payroll report will offer only part of the evidence about labor supply.

Other indicators point in different directions

Weekly initial jobless claims fell to 189,000 in the latest report available before Friday’s release, their lowest reading since July, according to CNBC. Job openings rose by 333,000 in September, and 3.36 million workers quit jobs during the month, the highest level in a year and a half. Quits are often watched as a rough indicator of workers’ confidence about finding other employment, but they are not a direct measure of new hiring.

At the same time, long-term unemployment has worsened. The number of people unemployed for more than 25 weeks was up 495,000 since January 2025, and the average duration of unemployment reached 24.8 weeks in September, an increase of 2.8 weeks, CNBC reported. These measures can reveal strain for job seekers even while the monthly unemployment rate changes little.

Friday’s release will include payrolls, unemployment, participation and wage data. Revisions may also alter estimates for prior months: the first payroll reading is preliminary and BLS later updates it. The 59,000 figure is therefore an analyst consensus, not an official count or a final assessment of the month.

Investors and policymakers will compare the new figures with the recent combination of slow hiring, low layoffs and uneven job-search conditions. The report alone cannot establish whether the labor market is strengthening or weakening; the survey measures, revisions and subsequent monthly data all matter. This article was prepared before the scheduled release and does not state an October result.