Oil Rebounds With WTI Back Above $90 and Brent Near $97 After Wednesday's Roughly 9% Plunge

Crude oil futures rebounded on Thursday, Nov. 5, 2026, lifting U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate back above $90 a barrel and Brent toward $97, a day after prices plunged roughly 8% to 9% on bets that a Democratic Congress could push for a faster end to the Iran war.

Prices recover after the post-election selloff

As of about 12:08 p.m. ET, WTI crude futures were at $90.17 a barrel, up about 2.33%, and Brent futures were at $96.80, up about 2.30%, according to Yahoo Finance data. CNBC, citing Reuters reporting, said Brent was up about 2.6% near $97.09 and WTI about 2.4% near $90.19 in earlier trading, levels consistent with the midday Yahoo quotes. Both benchmarks had tumbled more than 8% on Wednesday to settle at their lowest since Aug. 31.

DTN said NYMEX WTI for December delivery was up about 1.5% near $89.39 by 9:15 a.m. ET after hitting a four-week low of $87.13 on Wednesday, when it fell about 8% for its largest one-day decline since April. ICE Brent for January delivery was about 2.6% higher near $97 in that early snapshot. DTN said Wednesday's drop came as Democrats flipped Congress and signaled plans to use the War Powers Resolution to constrain U.S. military action against Iran once the new Congress takes office in January.

Giovanni Staunovo, a commodity analyst at UBS, told CNBC/Reuters that "the situation in the Middle East is still unresolved and that's why there is some modest recovery in prices at the moment," adding that Brent is more sensitive to geopolitical factors while WTI is a domestic U.S. benchmark.

Iran war odds and Hormuz risks

June Goh, senior oil analyst at Sparta Commodities, said markets were pricing a higher chance the war could end after the midterms, but that "there will be more volatility ahead as the path to full diplomacy to end the war is still wrought with many unknowns while the global strategic reserves have drawn very thin," according to CNBC. Citi said there were concerns that with the midterms over, the White House could focus on executive foreign-policy powers and potentially escalate conflict with Iran.

Eurasia Group lowered its estimate for the chance of renewed U.S. strikes on Iran to 60% from 65%, but also cut the probability of a deal to 10% from 20%, and raised the likelihood of a continued standoff to 30% from 15%, CNBC and DTN reported. Eurasia Group said escalation could push Brent into a $110 to $125 band. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said Thursday that two oil tankers and a tugboat had caught fire after attempting unauthorized routes through the Strait of Hormuz, CNBC reported.

Kitco News said a commercial tanker was struck by projectiles in the Persian Gulf north of Qatar and that Iranian authorities separately claimed additional vessels were damaged by naval mines in the strait, though some incidents had not been independently confirmed. Kitco said restoration of normal commercial shipping through Hormuz remains unresolved despite discussions involving Iranian and Omani officials.

Supply surplus and inventories

JPMorgan said in a Wednesday note that the resumption of Gulf supply has pushed the global oil market back into surplus after months of disruption, estimating a surplus of 1.1 million barrels per day in September that widened to 1.4 million bpd in October, nearly matching last year's average of 1.3 million bpd, according to CNBC and DTN. CNBC also said the Energy Information Administration reported Wednesday that U.S. crude, gasoline and distillate inventories all fell last week as demand hit its highest in a year.

Mukesh Sahdev, CEO of energy consultancy XAnalysts, told CNBC that commercial oil inventories in major consuming countries are near their lowest in 15 years and that Iran could emerge from the U.S. election outcome with greater resolve. Yahoo Finance's stock-market live blog said oil rose amid uncertainty that President Donald Trump would pursue a deal with Iran, after Vice President JD Vance said on X that "the reason we lost [the midterm elections] is the war."

Thursday's rebound therefore reflected a reassessment of unfinished Middle East risk rather than a full reversal of Wednesday's election-driven de-escalation trade. Prices recovered from the steepest one-day drop in months, but analysts emphasized that diplomacy, executive war powers before January, Hormuz security and thin strategic stocks leave the oil market exposed to further swings.

Sources: CNBC / Reuters, Nov. 5, 2026; DTN, Nov. 5, 2026; Kitco News, Nov. 5, 2026; Yahoo Finance live blog and market data as of about 12:08 p.m. ET.