Oil Slides to Three-Week Low on Iran and Ukraine Peace Efforts as Aramco Weighs Pipeline Expansion

Oil prices fell about 2% to a three-week low on Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026, in choppy trading as the market weighed diplomatic efforts to end the wars involving Iran and Ukraine against the risk of further supply disruptions from attacks in both conflicts. The move came on the same day that Saudi Aramco reported a sharp rise in third-quarter profit and said it is studying a major expansion of the pipeline it uses to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.

Prices at midmorning

Brent crude futures were down $1.63, or 2%, at $103.14 a barrel at 10:44 a.m. ET, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down 67 cents, or 1%, at $95.79, Reuters reported. Brent was on course for its lowest settlement since Oct. 7 and WTI for its lowest since Oct. 14.

The session was volatile. Brent rose above $107 overnight and then briefly fell below $101 in the morning, according to the Associated Press. Earlier, in Asian and European trading, both benchmarks had gained more than $1 after a senior Iranian official said Tehran and Washington remained far from a deal to end their war and after U.S. strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island. A U.S. official told Reuters the strikes targeted surface-to-air missiles used against U.S. assets, and another official said they appeared limited.

Both benchmarks had dropped more than 7% on Monday after talks between Iranian and Qatari officials raised hopes for an end to the conflict. Qatar's Foreign Ministry said on Tuesday that the United States and Iran remain committed to mediation and are reviewing proposals aimed at bridging their differences.

"Despite these positive signals, it's probably too early to think escalation risks have passed," ING said in a note quoted by Reuters, adding that strong signs of progress in the talks would mean further price declines.

Russia-Ukraine talks scheduled

The Kremlin confirmed that Russia will hold three-way peace talks with Ukraine and the United States in Abu Dhabi on Nov. 10 and 11. Russia was the world's third-largest crude producer in 2025, behind the United States and Saudi Arabia, and a settlement could eventually allow it to export more oil. Ahead of the talks, Russia launched a large missile and drone attack on Ukraine's energy system, and Ukraine struck a major oil refinery in the Russian city of Yaroslavl with drones overnight, according to the regional governor.

Aramco profit and pipeline plans

Aramco said adjusted net income rose to $31.2 billion in the third quarter from $28.6 billion a year earlier. Reported net profit climbed 34.5% to $36.3 billion, helped by a gain on the sale of its stake in the Malaysian refining venture PRefChem, Arab News reported. Operating cash flow was $38.7 billion and free cash flow was $28.2 billion. The board declared a base dividend of $21.9 billion, up 3.5% from a year earlier, and adjusted earnings before interest and taxes in the downstream business rose 234% on stronger refining margins.

On a results webcast, Chief Executive Amin Nasser said preliminary engineering is under way to raise the capacity of the East-West Pipeline, which carries crude from the Eastern Province to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, from 7 million to 10 million barrels per day. He said other export routes are also being studied, but no expansion would be announced until final investment decisions are made.

Nasser estimated that even if conditions normalized immediately, the market would need an extra 2 million barrels per day for two years to rebuild depleted inventories, plus about 1 million barrels per day as countries and companies add storage. He said global refined product stocks are very low, especially diesel, and estimated that the refined products market has lost about 5 million barrels per day of supply. He also said more than 130 attacks, mostly on very large crude carriers, have removed nearly 15% of the effective tanker fleet.

Inventory data ahead

Traders are awaiting weekly U.S. inventory figures from the American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday and the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday. Analysts polled by Reuters estimate that crude stocks rose by 2 million barrels in the week ended Oct. 30, which would be the first increase in five weeks. The EIA's previous weekly report showed commercial crude inventories excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at 410.6 million barrels, and the U.S. average retail gasoline price was $4.153 a gallon in the agency's latest weekly survey, according to data compiled by World Oil Monitor.

The vote in Tuesday's U.S. midterm elections is also being watched. Polls and nonpartisan analysts favor Democrats to take control of the House of Representatives, while the Senate outcome remains uncertain, Reuters said.

Sources: Reuters via Euronext, Nov. 3, 2026; Associated Press, Nov. 3, 2026; Saudi Aramco results release, Nov. 3, 2026; Arab News, Nov. 3, 2026; World Oil Monitor, Nov. 3, 2026.